What the on-chain money did, from 62 hours of silence to a one-hour repricing.
Market data as of 2026-07-20 01:05 UTC · Position data as of 2026-07-20 17:10 UTC · Page generated 2026-07-20 17:18 UTC
Spain won the 2026 World Cup 1-0, and the market has settled on-chain. Settlement confirmed on 2026-07-20. Final redemption: $28.33M paid to Spain holders on a cost basis of $6.95M; $4.70M in Argentina positions expired worthless (worth $15.6M on paper at kickoff, after Argentina's price doubled post-semifinal). This page tracks the complete ledger: who called it, who missed it, and what the hedges actually cost.
Settlement basis: winning side redeems at $1.00 per share, losing side at $0 — the same cycle Polymarket settles on. Position data as of 2026-07-20 17:10 UTC.
Argentina was the louder market — $174M in volume against Spain's $152M. But volume isn't commitment. Within an hour of full time, Argentina's order book depth had evaporated to $514.12K — one-eleventh of Spain's — as market makers walked away from a settled question. The money was loud on the way in and gone the moment the outcome was certain. The whale positioning had been the tell all along: 401 whales held Spain YES against 58 on NO; on Argentina, 237 held YES. When the whistle blew, those 237 wallets zeroed together — a collective misjudgment, visible days before kickoff.
Book depth as of 2026-07-19 22:05 UTC — one hour after full time. Volume as of 2026-07-20 01:05 UTC. Post-match books repopulated during settlement; the post-whistle snapshot is shown as the decision-relevant view of where market makers stood once the question was settled.
Hourly sampling · times in UTC · kickoff, end of regulation, the 106th-minute goal and the final whistle marked.
Regulation ended 0-0 and the markets barely moved — the question was still open. The decisive repricing came with Torres's 106th-minute extra-time goal (~21:15 UTC), and by 22:05 UTC the championship markets had fully absorbed the result. Sixty-two hours of stillness, resolved in under an hour of extra time.
The final snapshot lagged the last trades in a dead order book; end-of-series values above use last traded price.
gud.hl's Argentina position — 12,354,112 shares built for $1.23M, worth $5.1M at kickoff, the largest single holding across both markets — expires worthless. The $555K clip at 9.5¢ on day 4 of the group stage was conviction; the decision to hold through the final was the bet. Both were real. Only one paid.
mooseborzoi was the one true both-sides whale: YES on Spain, YES on Argentina. The winning leg made $563K; the losing leg burned $531K. Net: +$31.6K, +3.7% — insurance did its job, and insurance costs money. Allezpapa ran the same structure with a smaller Argentina leg and netted +451%. And wco26, whose Argentina position was negligible by settlement, was simply a Spain conviction bet that paid +716%. Three wallets, one label, three very different trades — the ledger doesn't care about the story you tell.
Top 10 by Realized P&L, as of 2026-07-20 17:10 UTC. Settled figures: winning side redeems at $1.00 per share, losing side at $0.
| Wallet | Side | Cost basis | Redemption | Realized P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| asparagus2012 | Yes | $445.98K | $3.35M | $2.90M (+650.6%) |
| Allezpapa | Yes | $419.61K | $2.68M | $2.26M (+539.3%) |
| Jsram | Yes | $1.21M | $3.12M | $1.91M (+157.9%) |
| wco26 | Yes | $201.29K | $1.64M | $1.44M (+716.7%) |
| thesingularityisnear | Yes | $177.56K | $1.40M | $1.22M (+689.9%) |
| FootballFan98 | Yes | $227.61K | $1.15M | $922.87K (+405.5%) |
| BreakTheBank | Yes | $296.47K | $1.03M | $731.65K (+246.8%) |
| Joe-Biden | Yes | $112.06K | $767.17K | $655.11K (+584.6%) |
| copa1970 | Yes | $146.68K | $780.19K | $633.52K (+431.9%) |
| mooseborzoi | Yes | $334.46K | $897.04K | $562.58K (+168.2%) |
| Wallet | Side | Cost basis | Redemption | Realized P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| gud.hl | Yes | $1.23M | $0 | $-1.23M (-100.0%) |
| mentionmarket | No | $1.01M | $0 | $-1.01M (-100.0%) |
| tankjack | Yes | $1.01M | $0 | $-1.01M (-100.0%) |
| mooseborzoi | Yes | $530.98K | $0 | $-530.98K (-100.0%) |
| mentionmarket | Yes | $340.41K | $0 | $-340.41K (-100.0%) |
| 0xa0f2…1848 | Yes | $214.02K | $0 | $-214.02K (-100.0%) |
| Sunguyen86 | Yes | $155.88K | $0 | $-155.88K (-100.0%) |
| neutralwave23 | Yes | $144.92K | $0 | $-144.92K (-100.0%) |
| Joe-Biden | Yes | $128.31K | $0 | $-128.31K (-100.0%) |
| anurag | Yes | $121.24K | $0 | $-121.24K (-100.0%) |
Rankings are per market leg — a wallet holding both markets appears once per market. Net across both markets where material: Allezpapa +451%, mooseborzoi +3.7%.
All figures derive from public on-chain activity and third-party market APIs. "Whale" denotes wallets with open positions above $10K in a tracked market. "Open positions value" is the current USDC market value of Yes-side holdings (shares × latest traded price at the stated timestamp); "total volume" is cumulative traded volume across all participants — the two measure different things and are never compared directly. P&L figures are realized on the same settlement cycle Polymarket uses: on resolution the winning side redeems at $1.00 per share and the losing side at $0. Price series sampled hourly from 2026-07-17 07:19 UTC; sampling density is disclosed on the chart. Trade capture thresholds are stated per table. Settlement ledger covers tracked top wallets (49 Spain / 29 Argentina), a subset of all whales in market. TopHolders reports positions, not picks — nothing here is financial advice.